Rain Chances Ramp Up for Area Beginning Friday Evening

September 22, 2017

A strong, low-pressure system developing in the western United States is anticipated to bring areas of rainfall in the southeastern New Mexico and West Texas region this weekend and on through the middle of next week.

According to the latest models from the National Weather Service on Friday morning, rain chances ranging from 40-percent on Saturday up to a 90-percent chance on Monday, were forecasted for the Seminole area.

Rick Hluchan, a meteorologist with the Midland regional office of the National Weather Service stated in a Friday morning interview with the Seminole Sentinel that a number of contributing factors are coming into play with the increased rain chances for the region.

“There’s increased moisture coming in from the southwest off of the Pacific (Ocean), which will be a huge factor in our developing rain chances this weekend and on through this next week,” said Hluchan. “There’s the possibility, according to the models, that this current low pressure system coming in will break off next week and redevelop over the area, helping keep the rain chances in the forecast for an extended period of time as well.”

The increased rain chances, for some, is a welcomed change in the region’s recent weather pattern, which has resulted in little rainfall, numerous days of 90-plus degree temperatures and some days where highs topped out at the 100-degree mark.

“With the recent hurricanes, those systems were so strong to the east that it kept any chances of moisture we typically see in this region at this time of the year, further to the west of us,” said Hluchan. “Now that those (hurricane) systems have gone, we should be getting back to normal weather patterns.”

Rain chances for Saturday call for a 40-percent chance of showers during the daytime hours, increasing to 60-percent on Saturday evening, as the high is expected to be in the low 80s.

Those precipitation chances remain at 60-percent through the day Sunday, decreasing slightly to 50-percent on Sunday evening, according to NWS models. Highs on Sunday are expected to be near 80 degrees in the region.

Rain chances ramp up on Monday, as an “80-to-90-percent,” as the upper-level low pressure begins to settle in over the region ahead of a cold front that is anticipated to move into the South Plains and Permian Basin area on Tuesday.

Highs on Monday are expected to be near 78-degrees, before dipping to a daytime high of 72 on Tuesday and near 70 degrees on Thursday.

Expected rainfall totals within Gaines County could range from 2-to-5 inches, according to NWS models released on Friday morning.

“I wouldn’t rule out the opportunity of us issuing a flash flood watch within the region over the next several days,” said Hluchan.
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Seminole Area Detailed Forecast

Today
Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. South wind around 15 mph.
Tonight
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Southeast wind around 15 mph.
 
Saturday
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. South wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Saturday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Southeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
 
Sunday
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. South wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday Night
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61.
 
Monday
Showers and thunderstorms. High near 78. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Monday Night
Showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58.
 
Tuesday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72.
Tuesday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55.
 
Wednesday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73.
Wednesday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54.
 
Thursday
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 71.
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